In processes of social transformation, societies move from a relatively stable state through a zone of disruption to a new zone of relative stability. Something old must come apart in order for something new to come together.
Donald Schon
What’s it all about?
Thinking in three horizons encourages you to go beyond the usual focus on fixing problems in the present. It is an approach that connects the present with desired futures and also identifies some of the disruptions which might occur in moving towards your future vision. It first emerged in the late nineties through the work of Baghai, Coley and White (1999) and has been developed by a range of practitioners (Curry & Hodgson, 2008) since, notably Bill Sharpe and the International Futures Forum in Scotland.
What’s it for?
The purpose of the model is to encourage you to think about the future of your business and to recognise signals about that future in the present. It is unusual as a future thinking tool in that neither the dominant view of the present nor the emerging view of the future is privileged. It also recognises the transition space in between where viewpoints, values and assumptions are often tested. The model stimulates discussion around:
- The present position and challenges that the business faces. It establishes a case for change (horizon 1)
- Your desired future state (horizon 3)
- The tensions that might occur between moving from the present position to that desired state (horizon 2)
- Signs of change in the present position, which give encouragement about moving towards the desired future state (horizon 3 in horizon 1)
Using the tool
The tool consists of a three horizons template, which helps you think about your business now, in the medium term and in the longer-term future. You can use the template on your own or with a group and need to devote at least a few hours to the activity to begin looking for your preferred futures.